A9 PREDICT

A9 Predict

Changelog

Changes associated with this build.
v0.2.0Build identifier supplied

Build date · Eastern: Oct 25, 2026, 1:41:30.352 PM EDT

Technical build details
Commit
ef695042b6cc7b8d0132bc9eb2a0a1890d123d57
Version source
Running build metadata

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v0.2.0 This build

Keep this round's issued prediction readable, with a separate fresh entry comparison when matching evidence is available.

Added

  • One-contract entry estimate from matching fresh forecast, quote, depth and timestamped series fees; no orders are placed.
  • Current Kalshi round, threshold, close countdown and timestamped public quotes, separate from immutable A9 forecasts.
  • Eastern-day count of unique rounds with acknowledged forecasts and saved settlement status; real trades remain unavailable without fills.

Fixed

  • Saved history stays historical, including records from an open round; it does not show a current pick or start quote refreshes.
  • An issued prediction stays visible until its round closes, with its original probability and an explicit stale-input label after freshness expires.
  • Invalid reference timestamps, conflicting records and different-round quotes cannot supply a selection or entry comparison.
  • Forecast-only pilots can use the approved budget while learning stays off.
  • Quotes retire when stale, closed, mismatched or incomplete; an old forecast is never relabeled as current.
  • Bounded response parsing and shared in-flight public reads prevent simultaneous viewers multiplying upstream work.

Changed

  • Target prices spell out At least versus Above from the contract comparison; original Kalshi wording and rules remain in Details.
  • Untracked no-pick counts and the absence of a trading connection are labeled explicitly instead of appearing as a temporary data outage.
  • Canonical ACE9 Living Glass theme, compact historical evidence, and Eastern Time throughout.
  • Accessible version dialog groups Added, Fixed and Changed notes for this exact build.
  • Page reads do not start forecast collection, learning or order execution.

Tracked question · Commodities

Natural Gas price up in next 15 mins?

A9 gives this a 49% chance of happening. That's somewhat less likely than the betting market thinks (53%) — a 3-point disagreement. A9 did not research this one; it only had the question and the market price, so treat it as a benchmark rather than new information.

Market 53%Kalshi
A9 Predict 49%low confidence
-3 pts vs market
Leans NO
Ask ACE9 about this

Why A9 thinks this

The evidence, separated.

Market price only

Adjusted using this market’s past results. Still being tested live.

For

{"kind":"a9-kalshi-calibration-v1","model":{"phase":"learned","samples":195,"validationSamples":49,"slope":1.25,"bias":-0.15,"validationGain":0.005598615193751044,"fingerprint":"17d98ff542f751c61020ea33c98f6b1bf054a6262e7a92b0d4eec2107e844633"},"quoteAt":"2026-10-23T03:00:18.860Z","closesAt":"2026-10-23T03:15:00Z"}

Against

Nothing recorded.

Unknown

Nothing recorded.

Probability history

A9 never rewrites the past.

MarketA9Me
49%Initial read

Adjusted using this market’s past results. Still being tested live.

a9-kalshi-calibration-v1 · 6db1aa7b07d1126a22867a3518afced628a367a4e76beadaf1c26f7aa7bcc466