A9 PREDICT

A9 Predict

Changelog

Changes associated with this build.
v0.2.0Build identifier supplied

Build date · Eastern: Oct 25, 2026, 1:41:30.352 PM EDT

Technical build details
Commit
ef695042b6cc7b8d0132bc9eb2a0a1890d123d57
Version source
Running build metadata

Build metadata does not confirm production deployment or service health.

v0.2.0 This build

Keep this round's issued prediction readable, with a separate fresh entry comparison when matching evidence is available.

Added

  • One-contract entry estimate from matching fresh forecast, quote, depth and timestamped series fees; no orders are placed.
  • Current Kalshi round, threshold, close countdown and timestamped public quotes, separate from immutable A9 forecasts.
  • Eastern-day count of unique rounds with acknowledged forecasts and saved settlement status; real trades remain unavailable without fills.

Fixed

  • Saved history stays historical, including records from an open round; it does not show a current pick or start quote refreshes.
  • An issued prediction stays visible until its round closes, with its original probability and an explicit stale-input label after freshness expires.
  • Invalid reference timestamps, conflicting records and different-round quotes cannot supply a selection or entry comparison.
  • Forecast-only pilots can use the approved budget while learning stays off.
  • Quotes retire when stale, closed, mismatched or incomplete; an old forecast is never relabeled as current.
  • Bounded response parsing and shared in-flight public reads prevent simultaneous viewers multiplying upstream work.

Changed

  • Target prices spell out At least versus Above from the contract comparison; original Kalshi wording and rules remain in Details.
  • Untracked no-pick counts and the absence of a trading connection are labeled explicitly instead of appearing as a temporary data outage.
  • Canonical ACE9 Living Glass theme, compact historical evidence, and Eastern Time throughout.
  • Accessible version dialog groups Added, Fixed and Changed notes for this exact build.
  • Page reads do not start forecast collection, learning or order execution.

Tracked question

Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

A9 gives this a 14% chance of happening. That's about the same as the betting market (12%). A9 researched this on the web before forecasting.

Market 12%Polymarket
A9 Predict 14%high confidence

Jev on its own said 22%

+2 pts vs market
Leans NO
Ask ACE9 about this

Why A9 thinks this

The evidence, separated.

Web research · quality 65/100

As of 25 Sep 2026: the official F1 timetable lists the Azerbaijan GP race for Saturday 26 Sep 2026 and qualifying is scheduled on 25 Sep (race resolution date per market criteria). ([formula1.com](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/formula-1-qatar-airways-azerbaijan-grand-prix-2026.EsMvgTyba8dZZ6RynZXv7?utm_source=openai)) Antonelli is a front‑running 2026 Mercedes driver with multiple wins this season and showed strong pace in Baku practice (notably P2 in FP2), and the team repaired an FP1 hydraulic issue before he returned to competitive running — these are concrete indicators he is a realistic contender. ([formula1.com](https://www.formula1.com/en/drivers/kimi-antonelli?utm_source=openai)) However, Baku’s street‑circuit volatility (frequent incidents, safety cars), the presence of other competitive drivers/teams, and outstanding items that will only be resolved by qualifying (official grid) and race incidents are the primary reasons the outcome is uncertain. ([formula1.com](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/need-to-know-the-most-important-facts-stats-and-trivia-ahead-of-the-2026-azerbaijan-grand-prix.3PkKCxoeboOkSc18pCB2z?utm_source=openai))

For

The 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix is scheduled for 24–26 September with the Formula 1 race listed for Saturday, 26 Sep 2026 (race day per official F1 timetable). ([formula1.com](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/formula-1-qatar-airways-azerbaijan-grand-prix-2026.EsMvgTyba8dZZ6RynZXv7?utm_source=openai))

Andrea Kimi Antonelli is listed as a 2026 Mercedes F1 driver and has multiple race wins / front‑running results in the 2026 season (season summary / driver page). ([formula1.com](https://www.formula1.com/en/drivers/kimi-antonelli?utm_source=openai))

Mercedes showed strong pace in Baku practice, with George Russell fastest and Antonelli running high up (P2 in FP2), indicating the car and driver have competitive single‑lap and race‑pace potential at this track. ([formula1.com](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/fp2-russell-leads-antonelli-and-verstappen-in-second-azerbaijan-gp-practice.37CqNf2uaAyxvDPmvbt3Iw?utm_source=openai))

Antonelli experienced a hydraulic issue in FP1 but the team repaired the car and he returned strongly in later running, which reduces immediate mechanical‑reliability concern ahead of qualifying/race. ([formula1.com](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/fp1-russell-leads-opening-azerbaijan-gp-practice-from-verstappen-as-antonelli-suffers-hydraulic-issue.1vpwyIqrue0aq0qtifIKCC?utm_source=openai))

Against

Baku is a tight, high‑risk street circuit that historically produces accidents, safety cars and chaotic outcomes—race unpredictability is high and often determines winners. ([formula1.com](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/need-to-know-the-most-important-facts-stats-and-trivia-ahead-of-the-2026-azerbaijan-grand-prix.3PkKCxoeboOkSc18pCB2z?utm_source=openai))

Other front‑running cars/drivers (Mercedes team mate George Russell, Red Bull, Ferrari etc.) are competitive in Baku practice sessions and could outqualify / out‑race Antonelli on Saturday. (Practice pace shows multiple teams close). ([formula1.com](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/fp2-russell-leads-antonelli-and-verstappen-in-second-azerbaijan-gp-practice.37CqNf2uaAyxvDPmvbt3Iw?utm_source=openai))

Grid penalties and power‑unit changes for some rivals (for example Aston Martin drivers) can reshuffle the starting order and race dynamics; conversely, penalties elsewhere can also make the race more chaotic and unpredictable. ([formula1.com](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/alonso-and-stroll-set-for-grid-penalties-at-azerbaijan-gp-after-taking-new-engine-components.2uOl7HZHamxmaUqjOxejAF?utm_source=openai))

Weather, tyre strategy and mid‑race incidents (safety car / red flags) at Baku frequently reshuffle finishing order; those factors are inherently uncertain ahead of the race. ([formula1.com](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/what-tyres-will-the-teams-and-drivers-have-for-the-2026-azerbaijan-grand-prix.1UFiasleBnLs9s0hyRCpS0?utm_source=openai))

Unknown

The qualifying / official starting grid and any last‑minute penalties or parc fermé penalties for Antonelli or key rivals (as well as tomorrow's race‑day incidents such as safety cars, red flags or weather) — qualifying and race incidents will materially determine whether Antonelli can convert pace into a win. ([formula1.com](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/formula-1-qatar-airways-azerbaijan-grand-prix-2026.EsMvgTyba8dZZ6RynZXv7?utm_source=openai))

What would change A9's mind

  • Antonelli starts from pole or the front row (substantially increases chances of winning).
  • Antonelli’s car suffers a mechanical problem before/during the race (would sharply reduce win probability).
  • A major safety car / red flag incident early in the race that eliminates or compromises the faster competitors (can flip the likely winner).
  • Wet weather or unexpected tyre degradation that disadvantages Mercedes or advantages rivals (changes expected running order).
  • Post‑qualifying grid penalties applied to key rivals (or to Antonelli) that materially alter his starting position.

Probability history

A9 never rewrites the past.

MarketA9Me
14%Initial read

As of 25 Sep 2026: the official F1 timetable lists the Azerbaijan GP race for Saturday 26 Sep 2026 and qualifying is scheduled on 25 Sep (race resolution date per market criteria). ([formula1.com](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/formula-1-qatar-airways-azerbaijan-grand-prix-2026.EsMvgTyba8dZZ6RynZXv7?utm_source=openai)) Antonelli is a front‑running 2026 Mercedes driver with multiple wins this season and showed strong pace in Baku practice (notably P2 in FP2), and the team repaired an FP1 hydraulic issue before he returned to competitive running — these are concrete indicators he is a realistic contender. ([formula1.com](https://www.formula1.com/en/drivers/kimi-antonelli?utm_source=openai)) However, Baku’s street‑circuit volatility (frequent incidents, safety cars), the presence of other competitive drivers/teams, and outstanding items that will only be resolved by qualifying (official grid) and race incidents are the primary reasons the outcome is uncertain. ([formula1.com](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/need-to-know-the-most-important-facts-stats-and-trivia-ahead-of-the-2026-azerbaijan-grand-prix.3PkKCxoeboOkSc18pCB2z?utm_source=openai))

a9-predict-0.3.0 · ce7f1b049bb651cefbbed88176ceae427de83497784519473d9813f78d9aceeb