A9 PREDICT

A9 Predict

Changelog

Changes associated with this build.
v0.2.0Build identifier supplied

Build date · Eastern: Oct 25, 2026, 1:41:30.352 PM EDT

Technical build details
Commit
ef695042b6cc7b8d0132bc9eb2a0a1890d123d57
Version source
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Build metadata does not confirm production deployment or service health.

v0.2.0 This build

Keep this round's issued prediction readable, with a separate fresh entry comparison when matching evidence is available.

Added

  • One-contract entry estimate from matching fresh forecast, quote, depth and timestamped series fees; no orders are placed.
  • Current Kalshi round, threshold, close countdown and timestamped public quotes, separate from immutable A9 forecasts.
  • Eastern-day count of unique rounds with acknowledged forecasts and saved settlement status; real trades remain unavailable without fills.

Fixed

  • Saved history stays historical, including records from an open round; it does not show a current pick or start quote refreshes.
  • An issued prediction stays visible until its round closes, with its original probability and an explicit stale-input label after freshness expires.
  • Invalid reference timestamps, conflicting records and different-round quotes cannot supply a selection or entry comparison.
  • Forecast-only pilots can use the approved budget while learning stays off.
  • Quotes retire when stale, closed, mismatched or incomplete; an old forecast is never relabeled as current.
  • Bounded response parsing and shared in-flight public reads prevent simultaneous viewers multiplying upstream work.

Changed

  • Target prices spell out At least versus Above from the contract comparison; original Kalshi wording and rules remain in Details.
  • Untracked no-pick counts and the absence of a trading connection are labeled explicitly instead of appearing as a temporary data outage.
  • Canonical ACE9 Living Glass theme, compact historical evidence, and Eastern Time throughout.
  • Accessible version dialog groups Added, Fixed and Changed notes for this exact build.
  • Page reads do not start forecast collection, learning or order execution.

Tracked question

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?

A9 gives this a 22% chance of happening. That's about the same as the betting market (22%). A9 researched this on the web before forecasting.

Market 22%Polymarket
A9 Predict 22%high confidence

Jev on its own said 23%

+0 pts vs market
Leans NO
Ask ACE9 about this

Why A9 thinks this

The evidence, separated.

Web research · quality 60/100

Open-source reporting (Reuters-derived pieces, Investing/MarketScreener, Saudi press and industry outlets) indicated a restart or ramp-up of flows on or around 22 September 2026, citing multiple unnamed industry/security sources and noting initial/low-capacity pumping and that exports/loading might not yet have resumed. However, the market’s resolution rule requires an explicit official Saudi government announcement that the pipeline 'is operational' (present tense). In the material reviewed up to 26 September 2026, I found authoritative reporting of the 11 September government shutdown and subsequent media reports of a restart attributed to non-government sources, but I did not find a contemporaneous Ministry of Energy or Saudi Press Agency statement that unambiguously says the pipeline is presently operating. The single largest unknown is whether the Saudi government issued a qualifying announcement between 11–30 September 2026; that official statement (if it exists) is the decisive evidence under the stated resolution criteria. ([bloomberg.com](https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-11/saudi-oil-pipeline-that-bypasses-hormuz-shut-after-attacks?utm_source=openai))

For

Multiple reputable news outlets reported that operations on the East–West pipeline had been restarted (partial/initial flows) on or around 22 September 2026, citing industry/security sources briefed on the matter. ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/saudi-arabia-restarts-eastwest-oil-pipeline-to-resume-exports-from-yanbu-sources-say-4910267?utm_source=openai))

Saudi press outlets and industry coverage repeated the Reuters/Bloomberg reports that the kingdom had begun restarting the pipeline and could resume exports from Yanbu later on the same day. ([saudigazette.com.sa](https://saudigazette.com.sa/article/664760/saudi-arabia/saudi-arabia-resumes-east-west-pipeline-operations-after-drone-attacks?utm_source=openai))

Technical/industry coverage described the pipeline as building up volumes and resuming operations this week (but noted crude loadings had not necessarily resumed immediately). These accounts imply at least some pumping activity restarted. ([hydrocarbonprocessing.com](https://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2026/09/saudi-east-west-pipeline-building-up-volumes-loading-yet-to-resume/?utm_source=openai))

Against

The Saudi Ministry of Energy officially announced on 11 September 2026 that the East–West pipeline was shut down as a precaution after multiple attacks; that official shutdown is the government’s baseline public position. ([bloomberg.com](https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-11/saudi-oil-pipeline-that-bypasses-hormuz-shut-after-attacks?utm_source=openai))

Reports of a restart were explicitly attributed to anonymous/third-party industry or security sources (e.g., ‘three sources said’ in Reuters-derived reporting) rather than to an official Saudi government/Ministry of Energy/SPA announcement. Under the market’s resolution rules, those third‑party attributions do not qualify. ([marketscreener.com](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/saudi-arabia-restarts-east-west-oil-pipeline-to-resume-exports-from-yanbu-sources-say-ce785ad8db81f327?utm_source=openai))

Contemporaneous reporting emphasized very low or ramping flows and that loading/export resumption was uncertain; some sources said reaching substantial capacity could take days and a full restart many weeks — language that is inconsistent with a clear government statement that the pipeline is presently operating at normal levels. ([marketscreener.com](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/saudi-arabia-restarts-east-west-oil-pipeline-to-resume-exports-from-yanbu-sources-say-ce785ad8db81f327?utm_source=openai))

I did not find an explicit, contemporaneous official Saudi government statement (Ministry of Energy or Saudi Press Agency) in the reviewed items that says the East–West pipeline ‘is operational’ in the present tense between 11 Sept and 30 Sept 2026; most restart coverage cites non-government sources. ([marketscreener.com](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/saudi-arabia-restarts-east-west-oil-pipeline-to-resume-exports-from-yanbu-sources-say-ce785ad8db81f327?utm_source=openai))

Unknown

Whether the government of Saudi Arabia (Ministry of Energy and/or the Saudi Press Agency) issued an explicit, present-tense announcement between 11 September and 30 September 2026 stating the East–West pipeline 'is operational' (including partial/reduced operation). Most media reports attribute restarts to unnamed sources; the presence or absence of a qualifying official statement is the decisive unknown.

What would change A9's mind

  • Flip to YES: An official Saudi government announcement (Ministry of Energy or Saudi Press Agency) published between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on 30 September 2026 that states the East–West pipeline 'is operating' or 'is operational' (present tense). A statement that the pipeline is operating at partial or reduced capacity also qualifies.
  • Does NOT flip to YES: A government statement that only says repairs are underway, that the pipeline 'will' or 'may' resume, that resumption is 'expected' or 'planned', or a report that relays third‑party claims without the government itself asserting present operation. (Per the market rules these do not qualify.)
  • Practical example that would flip: 'The Ministry of Energy confirms that the East–West pipeline is now operating at X% capacity' — qualifies. Example that would not flip: 'Inspection and repair teams are working; we expect to resume flows in coming days' — does not qualify.

Probability history

A9 never rewrites the past.

MarketA9Me
40%Initial read

Autonomous source snapshot 1686cf00a33d from Polymarket.

a9-predict-0.2.0 · db45f82d32489561194c1cda8ac0c8c6507334b8e9ba6335486766e246a715ca
44%+4 pts

On 2026-09-11 the Saudi Ministry of Energy publicly announced a precautionary shutdown of the East–West pipeline after multiple attacks. On 2026-09-22 multiple news outlets (citing unnamed industry/government sources and Reuters/Bloomberg) reported that Saudi Arabia had begun restarting the pipeline and could resume Yanbu exports. However, as of 2026-09-24 there is no explicit qualifying announcement from the Government of Saudi Arabia (Ministry of Energy or the Saudi Press Agency) stating the pipeline is presently operational. Because the market’s resolution requires a government statement that the pipeline is currently operating (third‑party attributions do not qualify), the available third‑party reports are supportive but not decisive; only a direct government announcement before 2026-09-30 23:59 ET will cause this market to resolve to “Yes.”

a9-predict-0.3.0 · 37fcae3520d9eb012a676da5e295bee0f918c5fa428c8d4e0ea1d1637db085f5
30%-13 pts

As of the reports reviewed, the canonical government statement from Sep 11, 2026 (Ministry of Energy / SPA) explicitly announced the East‑West pipeline had been shut down as a precaution after attacks. On Sep 22, multiple media outlets (reporting Reuters/Bloomberg) published that the pipeline had been restarted, but those articles attribute the information to unnamed/third‑party sources rather than to an official Saudi government announcement. The market’s resolution criteria require an official Saudi government announcement stating the pipeline is presently operational; I found no definitive SPA/Ministry of Energy announcement in the reviewed material that meets that requirement. The key unknown remains whether the Saudi government issued a qualifying official statement (SPA/Ministry/Aramco) between market creation and 2026-09-30; if such an official statement exists, it would resolve the market to “Yes.”

a9-predict-0.3.0 · 62837fc724bd6d76a03d473565bd24d7a5962e8bf4f2489d18832e2f0646d282
22%-9 pts

Open-source reporting (Reuters-derived pieces, Investing/MarketScreener, Saudi press and industry outlets) indicated a restart or ramp-up of flows on or around 22 September 2026, citing multiple unnamed industry/security sources and noting initial/low-capacity pumping and that exports/loading might not yet have resumed. However, the market’s resolution rule requires an explicit official Saudi government announcement that the pipeline 'is operational' (present tense). In the material reviewed up to 26 September 2026, I found authoritative reporting of the 11 September government shutdown and subsequent media reports of a restart attributed to non-government sources, but I did not find a contemporaneous Ministry of Energy or Saudi Press Agency statement that unambiguously says the pipeline is presently operating. The single largest unknown is whether the Saudi government issued a qualifying announcement between 11–30 September 2026; that official statement (if it exists) is the decisive evidence under the stated resolution criteria. ([bloomberg.com](https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-11/saudi-oil-pipeline-that-bypasses-hormuz-shut-after-attacks?utm_source=openai))

a9-predict-0.3.0 · 49aff11d4b490482818d5bd06c1d37d7698d4c935561bf5a611aac1c3857c095