The fixture Israel v Republic of Ireland is officially scheduled for 27 September 2026 (kickoff 18:45 UTC / 2:45 PM ET) in Debrecen; official UEFA/FAI sources list the match and squads. Recent match results (Austria 3–1 Israel; Kosovo 1–0 Republic of Ireland on 24 Sep 2026) show both teams can score and concede, and Israel has named recognized attacking players (e.g., Manor Solomon). Those facts make a multi-goal Israel performance plausible, but an exact 3–0 scoreline is a single specific outcome among many and requires both Israel to score three and Ireland to remain scoreless — an outcome sensitive to starting XIs, in-game events (red cards, penalties), and late changes. The official settlement rule is clear: the market resolves to the official 90-minute score as recognized by the governing body (with fallback sources specified). The main unresolved, high-impact unknowns are the starting lineups and any in-match incidents that would materially change both teams’ scoring prospects.
a9-predict-0.3.0 · dbd77c27c3471cc16ff33b30b3f972112a7aee3ffd2037ac81d5b8ee3a0dc83fTracked question
Exact Score: Israel 3 - 0 Republic of Ireland?
A9 gives this a 5% chance of happening. That's about the same as the betting market (4%). A9 researched this on the web before forecasting.
Jev on its own said 9%
Why A9 thinks this
The evidence, separated.
The fixture Israel v Republic of Ireland is officially scheduled for 27 September 2026 (kickoff 18:45 UTC / 2:45 PM ET) in Debrecen; official UEFA/FAI sources list the match and squads. Recent match results (Austria 3–1 Israel; Kosovo 1–0 Republic of Ireland on 24 Sep 2026) show both teams can score and concede, and Israel has named recognized attacking players (e.g., Manor Solomon). Those facts make a multi-goal Israel performance plausible, but an exact 3–0 scoreline is a single specific outcome among many and requires both Israel to score three and Ireland to remain scoreless — an outcome sensitive to starting XIs, in-game events (red cards, penalties), and late changes. The official settlement rule is clear: the market resolves to the official 90-minute score as recognized by the governing body (with fallback sources specified). The main unresolved, high-impact unknowns are the starting lineups and any in-match incidents that would materially change both teams’ scoring prospects.
For
The fixture is scheduled for 27 September 2026 with kickoff 18:45 UTC (2:45 PM ET) at Nagyerdei Stadion, Debrecen — an official schedule/fixture confirmation from the Football Association of Ireland and multiple fixtures/time pages. ([fai.ie](https://www.fai.ie/latest/fai-confirms-venue-uefa-nations-league-fixture-against-israel/))
UEFA lists the Israel v Republic of Ireland match and provides official match squad/lineup pages for the fixture (the market resolves to the official match statistics as recognized by the governing body). ([uefa.com](https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/match/2047982--israel-vs-republic-of-ireland/lineups/?utm_source=openai))
Israel showed both scoring and conceding tendencies in the Nations League opener (Austria 3–1 Israel on 24 Sep 2026), showing Israel can both score multiple goals and concede. ([uefa.com](https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/news/02a2-1fea18abbcbc-456e846509e7-1000--2026-27-uefa-nations-league-all-the-league-phase-fixtures/?utm_source=openai))
Republic of Ireland lost their Nations League opener (Kosovo 1–0 Republic of Ireland on 24 Sep 2026), indicating Ireland arrived to the Israel game in imperfect form. ([rte.ie](https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2026/0924/1592601-ireland-succumb-to-late-loss-in-pristina-pressure-cooker/?utm_source=openai))
Israel named attacking options in their squad (e.g., Manor Solomon included), giving Israel recognized goal threats that can produce multi-goal results. ([cdn.whufc.com](https://cdn.whufc.com/en/news/internationals-or-solomon-named-in-israel-squad-for-uefa-nations-league-fixtures?utm_source=openai))
Against
Exact-score outcomes such as 3–0 are a single, specific result among many possible scores in football and are relatively uncommon compared with more frequent scorelines (0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–1); therefore an exact 3–0 requires a specific sequence of events during the match (this is a general characteristic of exact-score markets).
Both teams conceded recently (Israel conceded 3 to Austria; Ireland conceded to Kosovo), which reduces the conditional probability of a clean sheet for one side — to reach 3–0 Israel would need to both score multiple and keep a clean sheet. ([uefa.com](https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/news/02a2-1fea18abbcbc-456e846509e7-1000--2026-27-uefa-nations-league-all-the-league-phase-fixtures/?utm_source=openai))
Ireland remain a competitive European side with experienced defensive leaders (post-match comments and reporting highlight defensive issues but also organisational capability), so a large-margin shutout is not guaranteed. ([rte.ie](https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2026/0924/1592893-result-and-parts-of-the-performance-disappoints-oshea/?utm_source=openai))
Venue/organizational changes have occurred in Ireland’s Nations League scheduling (FAI moved the second Israel fixture to a neutral venue on Oct 4 while keeping Sep 27 in Debrecen), demonstrating the schedule/venue environment can change and introducing uncertainty around logistics that might affect performance. ([fai.ie](https://www.fai.ie/latest/fai-confirms-venue-uefa-nations-league-fixture-against-israel/))
Unknown
The starting lineups and in-game events (selected XI, late injuries, early red cards, penalty awards, and other match incidents) — these directly determine scoring patterns and are not knowable in advance. Additionally, any last-minute schedule or venue change (or match abandonment) would alter settlement mechanics under the market rules.
What would change A9's mind
- An early Israel goal (first 15–20 minutes) that forces Ireland to chase, increasing chances Israel can extend lead to multiple goals.
- An early red card to either side (especially to Ireland) — a sending-off against Ireland would substantially increase the plausibility of a multi-goal Israel win/clean sheet.
- A penalty awarded to Israel (converted) or to Ireland (if Ireland scores, it removes the zero for Ireland and eliminates the 3–0 outcome).
- Key starter withdrawals for either team announced pre-match (e.g., late absence of Israel’s main attackers or Ireland’s main centre-backs) that materially change expected goals for/against.
- Unusual external disruptions (postponement, abandonment, or venue change) that would trigger the market’s post-match resolution rules or keep the market open until completion.
Probability history