As of late Sept 25, 2026 the international oil complex has shown episodes in September where Brent exceeded $105 driven by Middle East supply-risk events; however front‑month WTI has traded materially below $105 (mid‑$90s on Sept 25 reporting). The market could resolve to 'Yes' only if the Active Month WTI futures 1-minute candle on the Pyth feed records a high ≥ $105 during a qualifying September trading session. That requires either a large new supply/demand shock that directly affects U.S. crude balances or an unusually large session spike that compresses the Brent–WTI spread; absent such an event the available price trajectory and structural factors (WTI discount to Brent, liquidity) argue against a spontaneous one‑minute print at $105. Pyth 1-minute Active‑Month CL data (or CME daily highs if a Pyth outage occurs) is the authoritative resolution source per the market's rules.
a9-predict-0.3.0 · ac42ed90f96c1505344f3b7379f5597d67388f63421692aaa349b3d8464c8e33Tracked question
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?
A9 gives this a 7% chance of happening. That's about the same as the betting market (6%). A9 researched this on the web before forecasting.
Jev on its own said 13%
Why A9 thinks this
The evidence, separated.
As of late Sept 25, 2026 the international oil complex has shown episodes in September where Brent exceeded $105 driven by Middle East supply-risk events; however front‑month WTI has traded materially below $105 (mid‑$90s on Sept 25 reporting). The market could resolve to 'Yes' only if the Active Month WTI futures 1-minute candle on the Pyth feed records a high ≥ $105 during a qualifying September trading session. That requires either a large new supply/demand shock that directly affects U.S. crude balances or an unusually large session spike that compresses the Brent–WTI spread; absent such an event the available price trajectory and structural factors (WTI discount to Brent, liquidity) argue against a spontaneous one‑minute print at $105. Pyth 1-minute Active‑Month CL data (or CME daily highs if a Pyth outage occurs) is the authoritative resolution source per the market's rules.
For
Significant supply-risk events in September 2026 (Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities and ongoing Middle East tensions) have driven sharp intramonth spikes in oil prices, pushing Brent above $105 on multiple days in September — demonstrating that shock-driven rallies to or above $105 for crude benchmarks are possible. (See Reuters/MarketScreener coverage of Sept 24–25, 2026 price moves.)
Brent crude traded above $105 earlier in September 2026 (examples reported in mid-September), showing that the international benchmark has already reached the level this month; a sufficiently large regional shock or spillover usually narrows the Brent–WTI spread and can push WTI toward similar highs. (See coverage noting Brent above $105 / ~$107 in mid-September 2026.)
Resolution will use Pyth 1-minute Active-Month CL futures candles; Pyth provides high-resolution, intraminute data (the exact data feed specified in the market), so any short-lived $105 print (1-minute candle high) would be captured if it occurred on the feed during a qualifying trading session. (See Polymarket/Pyth resolution documentation referencing pythdata.app.)
CME front-month dynamics and the active-month switching rules mean that late-month liquidity shifts (rolls into the next contract) can produce wider 1-minute ranges in the Active Month contract during the rollover window, increasing the chance of a transient extreme print if a shock occurs during that window. (See CME contract/market-hours references explaining CL trading hours and roll/last-trading-day rules.)
Against
As of reporting on Sept 24–25, 2026, the front-month WTI price (per Reuters coverage summarized in market reports) was substantially below $105 (examples cite mid-$90s for the front-month on Sept 25, 2026), indicating that, absent a new large shock, WTI still has a material gap to $105. (See Reuters/market coverage for Sept 25, 2026 front-month WTI levels.)
WTI often trades at a discount to Brent because of U.S. domestic supply, refinery flows, and regional inventory dynamics — even when Brent is >$105, WTI may remain significantly lower unless the supply shock directly impacts U.S. crude flows or the Brent–WTI spread compresses sharply. (See Reuters reporting on divergence between Brent and WTI in late-September 2026.)
Intramonth volatility can be large, but a one-minute $105 print requires either a sudden, large price shock or extremely thin liquidity in the Active Month contract during a trading session; routine market moves and gradual price adjustments are unlikely to create a single-minute breach from mid-$90s to $105 without a discrete event. (Market structure and liquidity considerations as discussed in market commentary.)
If the Active Month contract were to not trade in the specified window (very unlikely under normal CME/GLOBEX operations), the market resolves to 'No' per the rules — and a Pyth/CME data outage could force reliance on daily CMЕ published highs rather than minute candles, adding another operational obstacle to confirming a 1-minute $105 print on Pyth.
Unknown
Whether a discrete, large supply or demand shock (e.g., major Middle East disruption that directly affects seaborne flows or sudden, unexpected OPEC+ deep cuts timed inside September 2026 trading sessions) will occur during a trading session for the Active Month CL contract and be captured as a ≥$105 1-minute high on the Pyth feed.
What would change A9's mind
- A new major supply disruption that directly impacts seaborne exports (Saudi, Iraqi, or other major producer facilities) during a September trading session — would materially increase chance of a 1-minute $105 print.
- An unexpected, large OPEC+ production cut or announcement timed during September trading hours that tightens near-term supply beyond current expectations.
- A sudden collapse in U.S. crude inventories or refinery outages in the U.S. that sharply tighten domestic balances and compress the Brent–WTI spread.
- A Pyth feed outage or data failure that prevents verification via 1-minute candles (would force use of CME daily published highs under the stated fallback rules and could change whether the market is verifiable as 'Yes').
- Rapid USD weakness or a coordinated macro shock (e.g., rapid decline in U.S. Treasury yields or geopolitical risk premium surge) that drives an abrupt risk-on spike in commodity prices during a September trading session.
Probability history