A9 PREDICT

A9 Predict

Changelog

Changes associated with this build.
v0.2.0Build identifier supplied

Build date · Eastern: Oct 25, 2026, 1:41:30.352 PM EDT

Technical build details
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ef695042b6cc7b8d0132bc9eb2a0a1890d123d57
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v0.2.0 This build

Keep this round's issued prediction readable, with a separate fresh entry comparison when matching evidence is available.

Added

  • One-contract entry estimate from matching fresh forecast, quote, depth and timestamped series fees; no orders are placed.
  • Current Kalshi round, threshold, close countdown and timestamped public quotes, separate from immutable A9 forecasts.
  • Eastern-day count of unique rounds with acknowledged forecasts and saved settlement status; real trades remain unavailable without fills.

Fixed

  • Saved history stays historical, including records from an open round; it does not show a current pick or start quote refreshes.
  • An issued prediction stays visible until its round closes, with its original probability and an explicit stale-input label after freshness expires.
  • Invalid reference timestamps, conflicting records and different-round quotes cannot supply a selection or entry comparison.
  • Forecast-only pilots can use the approved budget while learning stays off.
  • Quotes retire when stale, closed, mismatched or incomplete; an old forecast is never relabeled as current.
  • Bounded response parsing and shared in-flight public reads prevent simultaneous viewers multiplying upstream work.

Changed

  • Target prices spell out At least versus Above from the contract comparison; original Kalshi wording and rules remain in Details.
  • Untracked no-pick counts and the absence of a trading connection are labeled explicitly instead of appearing as a temporary data outage.
  • Canonical ACE9 Living Glass theme, compact historical evidence, and Eastern Time throughout.
  • Accessible version dialog groups Added, Fixed and Changed notes for this exact build.
  • Page reads do not start forecast collection, learning or order execution.

Tracked question

Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?

A9 gives this a 10% chance of happening. That's about the same as the betting market (8%). A9 researched this on the web before forecasting.

Market 8%Polymarket
A9 Predict 10%high confidence

Jev on its own said 17%

+2 pts vs market
Leans NO
Ask ACE9 about this

Why A9 thinks this

The evidence, separated.

Web research · quality 75/100

Objective, trackable data shows MrBeast’s per‑video first‑week outcomes vary: a recent main‑channel video uploaded 2026‑09‑19 had ~63.8M views within its first ~6 days (demonstrating that 60–70M in week‑1 is a realized outcome), while other recent main‑channel uploads in Aug–Sep 2026 exceeded 100M views (e.g., ~110M+ totals), illustrating wide variance between releases. The decisive unknown is the next video’s format, novelty, and promotional push; those factors typically determine whether a release ends up in the 60–70M band or above/below it. Key data sources used: live video-tracking pages and recent YouTube video counts for MrBeast. ([videostats.communitrics.com](https://videostats.communitrics.com/mrbeast/gains?utm_source=openai))

For

A recent MrBeast main-channel upload posted on 2026-09-19 had ~63.8M views within its first ~6 days (current figure shown on a live video-tracking page), demonstrating that a first-week total inside 60–70M is clearly achievable for his long-form uploads. ([videostats.communitrics.com](https://videostats.communitrics.com/mrbeast/gains?utm_source=openai))

Some recent long-form uploads have landed in the 60–130M range rather than uniformly above 100M, showing substantial variance from upload to upload (examples include both ~63.8M and ~113M totals on different recent videos). ([videostats.communitrics.com](https://videostats.communitrics.com/mrbeast/gains?utm_source=openai))

Day‑1 performance for recent long-form uploads can be strong (e.g., ~37.4M in 24 hours for a Sep 5 upload), but not deterministically predictive of a >70M week — high day‑1 numbers sometimes map to a week in the 60–130M band depending on tail growth. ([twstalker.com](https://www.twstalker.com/MrBeast_Stats?utm_source=openai))

Against

Multiple recent MrBeast long-form videos have exceeded 100M views overall (examples: uploads showing ~110M+ and ~113M on Aug and Sep uploads), which argues those videos commonly clear the 70M threshold within a week for many releases. ([youtube.com](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qtl8lJwbd4g&utm_source=openai))

Industry coverage and week-by-week rankings list some MrBeast uploads as among the top branded/viral videos of the week with reported view totals over 100M, indicating continued capacity for >70M week-one totals. ([tubefilter.com](https://www.tubefilter.com/2026/09/15/top-5-branded-videos-mrbeast-dude-perfect-jesse-moncur/?utm_source=openai))

Channel scale (extremely large subscriber base and historically huge per‑upload reach) and recurring sponsorship/promotional support increase probability that many main-channel uploads exceed 70M in their first week. ([ytestimator.com](https://ytestimator.com/channel/UCX6OQ3DkcsbYNE6H8uQQuVA?utm_source=openai))

Unknown

The single largest unknown is the content & format of MrBeast’s next post after 2026-09-25 (long-form vs Short, challenge/promo vs low-key content), plus the level of cross‑promotion/sponsorship and whether YouTube algorithmic distribution favors that specific video — these factors drive first‑week velocity more than historical channel averages.

What would change A9's mind

  • If the next upload is a long-form, high‑budget challenge featuring many known collaborators and heavy cross‑platform promo (social posts, partner promos, paid promotion), expect materially higher week‑1 views (flip toward >70M).
  • If the next upload is a short, teaser, low‑promotion piece, or a low-interest format (e.g., purely philanthropic update with little novelty), week‑1 views could fall below 60M (flip toward <60M).
  • A major platform-level change (YouTube algorithm change, major disruption to public view counts, or removal/downranking of the video) between release and the 7‑day mark would materially change expected outcomes and could invalidate simple historical comparisons.
  • If MrBeast posts within a crowded global event window (e.g., major sports tournament or widely watched live event) without additional promotion, organic view growth could be suppressed compared with baseline.

Probability history

A9 never rewrites the past.

MarketA9Me
10%Initial read

Objective, trackable data shows MrBeast’s per‑video first‑week outcomes vary: a recent main‑channel video uploaded 2026‑09‑19 had ~63.8M views within its first ~6 days (demonstrating that 60–70M in week‑1 is a realized outcome), while other recent main‑channel uploads in Aug–Sep 2026 exceeded 100M views (e.g., ~110M+ totals), illustrating wide variance between releases. The decisive unknown is the next video’s format, novelty, and promotional push; those factors typically determine whether a release ends up in the 60–70M band or above/below it. Key data sources used: live video-tracking pages and recent YouTube video counts for MrBeast. ([videostats.communitrics.com](https://videostats.communitrics.com/mrbeast/gains?utm_source=openai))

a9-predict-0.3.0 · 532388fff437f23e0c8a51ef3c7246f97a632aa972af59d280c66eb053df941a