A9 PREDICT

A9 Predict

Changelog

Changes associated with this build.
v0.2.0Build identifier supplied

Build date · Eastern: Oct 25, 2026, 1:41:30.352 PM EDT

Technical build details
Commit
ef695042b6cc7b8d0132bc9eb2a0a1890d123d57
Version source
Running build metadata

Build metadata does not confirm production deployment or service health.

v0.2.0 This build

Keep this round's issued prediction readable, with a separate fresh entry comparison when matching evidence is available.

Added

  • One-contract entry estimate from matching fresh forecast, quote, depth and timestamped series fees; no orders are placed.
  • Current Kalshi round, threshold, close countdown and timestamped public quotes, separate from immutable A9 forecasts.
  • Eastern-day count of unique rounds with acknowledged forecasts and saved settlement status; real trades remain unavailable without fills.

Fixed

  • Saved history stays historical, including records from an open round; it does not show a current pick or start quote refreshes.
  • An issued prediction stays visible until its round closes, with its original probability and an explicit stale-input label after freshness expires.
  • Invalid reference timestamps, conflicting records and different-round quotes cannot supply a selection or entry comparison.
  • Forecast-only pilots can use the approved budget while learning stays off.
  • Quotes retire when stale, closed, mismatched or incomplete; an old forecast is never relabeled as current.
  • Bounded response parsing and shared in-flight public reads prevent simultaneous viewers multiplying upstream work.

Changed

  • Target prices spell out At least versus Above from the contract comparison; original Kalshi wording and rules remain in Details.
  • Untracked no-pick counts and the absence of a trading connection are labeled explicitly instead of appearing as a temporary data outage.
  • Canonical ACE9 Living Glass theme, compact historical evidence, and Eastern Time throughout.
  • Accessible version dialog groups Added, Fixed and Changed notes for this exact build.
  • Page reads do not start forecast collection, learning or order execution.

Tracked question

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

A9 gives this a 81% chance of happening. That's somewhat less likely than the betting market thinks (90%) — a 8-point disagreement. A9 did not research this one; it only had the question and the market price, so treat it as a benchmark rather than new information.

Market 90%Polymarket
A9 Predict 81%moderate confidence
-8 pts vs market
Leans YES
Ask ACE9 about this

Why A9 thinks this

The evidence, separated.

Market price only

Autonomous source snapshot b13c0fcb0fa6 from Polymarket.

For

The source market's YES probability was 89.5% at the observation cutoff.

Against

A market price can reflect liquidity, positioning, and participant bias rather than ground truth.

Unknown

Information arriving after the immutable observation cutoff.

What would change A9's mind

  • A material authoritative update changes the event state before the deadline.

Probability history

A9 never rewrites the past.

MarketA9Me
81%Initial read

Autonomous source snapshot b13c0fcb0fa6 from Polymarket.

a9-predict-0.2.0 · d8eceb8356c95ac1b9396d1690feed4d7276d35a4a9f9efd4a4af8ebbad9df30