Ariana Grande’s “Hate That I Made You Love Me” is officially nominated for Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV VMAs (nominees announced Aug 2026). That nomination makes the market resolvable (it would have immediately resolved to “No” if the video had not been nominated). The core evidence for Ariana winning is the confirmed nomination and her existing fanbase/previous VMA visibility; the core opposing evidence is a stacked nominee field (including Madonna and Taylor Swift) and the outcome’s strong dependence on live voting/turnout. The final, authoritative resolution will be the official winner announced by MTV during the live broadcast on Sept 27, 2026 (primary resolution source: MTV/VMAs), and any subsequent credible consensus reporting. ([paramountpressexpress.com](https://www.paramountpressexpress.com/mtv/shows/2026-mtv-video-music-awards-vmas/releases/?view=113133-nominations-revealed-for-2026-mtv-video-music-awards-vmas-airing-live-from-los-angeles-sunday-sept-27-on-cbs&utm_source=openai))
a9-predict-0.3.0 · 8ef398530c88df22191bfb1e1cd60c8038e912c2356790257d006b3a0ecbd0c6Tracked question
Will “Hate That I Made You Love Me” by Ariana Grande win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
A9 gives this a 34% chance of happening. That's about the same as the betting market (34%). A9 researched this on the web before forecasting.
Jev on its own said 32%
Why A9 thinks this
The evidence, separated.
Ariana Grande’s “Hate That I Made You Love Me” is officially nominated for Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV VMAs (nominees announced Aug 2026). That nomination makes the market resolvable (it would have immediately resolved to “No” if the video had not been nominated). The core evidence for Ariana winning is the confirmed nomination and her existing fanbase/previous VMA visibility; the core opposing evidence is a stacked nominee field (including Madonna and Taylor Swift) and the outcome’s strong dependence on live voting/turnout. The final, authoritative resolution will be the official winner announced by MTV during the live broadcast on Sept 27, 2026 (primary resolution source: MTV/VMAs), and any subsequent credible consensus reporting. ([paramountpressexpress.com](https://www.paramountpressexpress.com/mtv/shows/2026-mtv-video-music-awards-vmas/releases/?view=113133-nominations-revealed-for-2026-mtv-video-music-awards-vmas-airing-live-from-los-angeles-sunday-sept-27-on-cbs&utm_source=openai))
For
Ariana Grande’s “Hate That I Made You Love Me” is officially listed among the 2026 MTV VMA nominees for Video of the Year (nominees announced by MTV/Paramount). ([paramountpressexpress.com](https://www.paramountpressexpress.com/mtv/shows/2026-mtv-video-music-awards-vmas/releases/?view=113133-nominations-revealed-for-2026-mtv-video-music-awards-vmas-airing-live-from-los-angeles-sunday-sept-27-on-cbs&utm_source=openai))
Multiple independent media outlets published the full nominees list that includes Ariana’s video, confirming broad reporting of the nomination (Pitchfork, NBC Los Angeles, LA Times, Parade, E! Online). ([pitchfork.com](https://pitchfork.com/story/madonna-taylor-swift-lead-vma-2026-nominations/?utm_source=openai))
Ariana Grande has recent VMA visibility and prior-year wins/placements that demonstrate an active fanbase and previous success at VMAs, which historically helps in fan-influenced awards. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_MTV_Video_Music_Awards?utm_source=openai))
MTV’s official nominees/voting pages include the Video of the Year category and provide a public voting mechanism and official announcement channel, meaning the community/fan vote and MTV broadcast are the direct, verifiable path to a winner. ([vote.mtv.com](https://vote.mtv.com/video-of-the-year))
Against
The 2026 field contains multiple high-profile competitors (examples reported include Madonna’s "Confessions II - The Film" and Taylor Swift’s entry), and some competitors have more overall nominations or broader recent media momentum, which can split or outweigh votes. ([pitchfork.com](https://pitchfork.com/story/madonna-taylor-swift-lead-vma-2026-nominations/?utm_source=openai))
Madonna leads the 2026 nominations overall, which media coverage frames as significant momentum for her across top categories; heavy nomination counts often correlate with voter attention for other top prizes. ([latimes.com](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/story/2026-08-18/vma-nominations-2026-list-mtv?utm_source=openai))
VMAs outcomes (especially Video of the Year) have in many years been influenced by massive, organized fan mobilization (e.g., artists with very large, active voting communities), and other nominees (notably Taylor Swift) have highly mobilized fanbases. Reporting on nominees highlights that these fan dynamics remain a key factor. ([pitchfork.com](https://pitchfork.com/story/madonna-taylor-swift-lead-vma-2026-nominations/?utm_source=openai))
The official winner will be decided at the live broadcast (Sept 27, 2026) and not before; until that live result is declared, any forecast is contingent on uncertain live turnout and tabulation. ([paramountpressexpress.com](https://www.paramountpressexpress.com/mtv/shows/2026-mtv-video-music-awards-vmas/releases/?view=113133-nominations-revealed-for-2026-mtv-video-music-awards-vmas-airing-live-from-los-angeles-sunday-sept-27-on-cbs&utm_source=openai))
Unknown
The decisive unknown is live voting/turnout and tabulation dynamics during the awards period (including whether MTV uses fan voting, academy/jury components, or other weighting this year) and how effectively Ariana’s campaign/fanbase mobilizes relative to other nominees between now and the live broadcast. (The official winner will be declared during the live broadcast on Sept 27, 2026.) ([vote.mtv.com](https://vote.mtv.com/video-of-the-year))
What would change A9's mind
- Ariana Grande or her team launches an effective, large-scale voting mobilization (social, fan campaigns) between nomination and the broadcast, materially increasing her vote share.
- Ariana performs at the ceremony or receives a prominent on-show moment (performance/tribute) that drives vote surges and visibility during the broadcast window.
- A major competitor (e.g., a top nominee like Madonna or Taylor Swift) withdraws, is disqualified, or loses fan momentum due to an unforeseen PR event before/during voting.
- MTV changes voting rules/processes or the weight of fan voting vs. jury/academy voting is altered (if such a change is announced), affecting how votes translate to the final result. ([paramountpressexpress.com](https://www.paramountpressexpress.com/mtv/shows/2026-mtv-video-music-awards-vmas/releases/?view=113133-nominations-revealed-for-2026-mtv-video-music-awards-vmas-airing-live-from-los-angeles-sunday-sept-27-on-cbs&utm_source=openai))
- A tie occurs and the alphabetical tie-breaking rule (market’s tie rule) favors Ariana relative to the tied nominee(s). (Tie-break resolution per the provided market rules.)
Probability history