A9 PREDICT

A9 Predict

Changelog

Changes associated with this build.
v0.2.0Build identifier supplied

Build date · Eastern: Oct 25, 2026, 1:41:30.352 PM EDT

Technical build details
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ef695042b6cc7b8d0132bc9eb2a0a1890d123d57
Version source
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v0.2.0 This build

Keep this round's issued prediction readable, with a separate fresh entry comparison when matching evidence is available.

Added

  • One-contract entry estimate from matching fresh forecast, quote, depth and timestamped series fees; no orders are placed.
  • Current Kalshi round, threshold, close countdown and timestamped public quotes, separate from immutable A9 forecasts.
  • Eastern-day count of unique rounds with acknowledged forecasts and saved settlement status; real trades remain unavailable without fills.

Fixed

  • Saved history stays historical, including records from an open round; it does not show a current pick or start quote refreshes.
  • An issued prediction stays visible until its round closes, with its original probability and an explicit stale-input label after freshness expires.
  • Invalid reference timestamps, conflicting records and different-round quotes cannot supply a selection or entry comparison.
  • Forecast-only pilots can use the approved budget while learning stays off.
  • Quotes retire when stale, closed, mismatched or incomplete; an old forecast is never relabeled as current.
  • Bounded response parsing and shared in-flight public reads prevent simultaneous viewers multiplying upstream work.

Changed

  • Target prices spell out At least versus Above from the contract comparison; original Kalshi wording and rules remain in Details.
  • Untracked no-pick counts and the absence of a trading connection are labeled explicitly instead of appearing as a temporary data outage.
  • Canonical ACE9 Living Glass theme, compact historical evidence, and Eastern Time throughout.
  • Accessible version dialog groups Added, Fixed and Changed notes for this exact build.
  • Page reads do not start forecast collection, learning or order execution.

Tracked question

Fight to Go the Distance?

A9 gives this a 36% chance of happening. That's much less likely than the betting market thinks (50%) — a 14-point disagreement. A9 researched this on the web before forecasting.

Market 50%Polymarket
A9 Predict 36%high confidence

Jev on its own said 10%

-14 pts vs market
Leans NO
Ask ACE9 about this

Why A9 thinks this

The evidence, separated.

Web research · quality 90/100

As of Sep 24, 2026 the UFC officially announced that Micky Gall has been removed from the scheduled Sep 26, 2026 bout with Sedriques Dumas due to a medical issue and that Luis Hernandez will replace Gall; multiple reputable MMA outlets corroborate that update. Under the market's resolution rules, the specific Gall vs Dumas bout will not occur on Sep 26 unless the UFC reverses or amends that removal (or rebooks the same pairing on or before Oct 10, 2026). The single largest uncertainty is whether the UFC will change the announced status before the event or rebook the pairing ≤ Oct 10, 2026; absent such a reversal, the prescribed resolution path in the market rules (canceled/replaced = 50-50) would apply.

For

UFC posted an official update on Sep 24, 2026 stating: 'Due to medical issues, Micky Gall has been removed from his middleweight bout with Sedriques Dumas' for UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos (Sep 26, 2026) and that Luis Hernandez will replace Gall. (UFC official update, Sep 24, 2026).

Multiple independent MMA news outlets (MMA News / MMA Junkie summary, Yahoo Sports, MMA Mania, Heavy) reported the same removal and the Hernandez replacement on Sep 24, 2026, corroborating the UFC announcement.

The UFC update explicitly says the bout will now be covered by Hernandez (making a UFC debut) and that the pairing will take place at light heavyweight — this confirms the originally billed Mickey Gall vs Sedriques Dumas pairing will not occur on Sep 26 as scheduled (unless the UFC reverses the removal).

Against

Gall was publicly listed on the event's fight card as recently as earlier published fight listings for UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos (indicating the matchup was official prior to the Sep 24 update) — conceivably the UFC could still reverse or amend the update before the event if the 'medical issue' is cleared, which would restore the original pairing.

The market resolution depends on official UFC information. The UFC could (rarely) amend or clarify the status (e.g., change to 'illness cleared' or a late reinstatement) between Sep 24 and the event start, which would keep the Gall vs Dumas bout alive and thus preserve the possibility that it goes to the judges' scorecards.

The resolution criteria allow rebooking/occurrence of the Gall vs Dumas pairing before Oct 10, 2026; if the UFC rebooks and the fight is held and goes to the judges, the market would resolve 'Yes' — this path remains open until the event and until Oct 10, 2026.

Unknown

Whether the UFC will reverse or amend its Sep 24, 2026 removal of Mickey Gall (e.g., if the reported 'medical issue' is cleared) or otherwise rebook the specific Gall vs Dumas pairing before Oct 10, 2026. The official UFC update as of Sep 24 indicates the Gall vs Dumas pairing will not occur on Sep 26; whether that status changes is the key unresolved fact.

What would change A9's mind

  • UFC issues an official correction or update reinstating Micky Gall in the scheduled bout with Sedriques Dumas for Sep 26, 2026 (this would reopen the possibility of a judges' decision).
  • UFC rebooks the specific Gall vs Dumas matchup to take place on or before Oct 10, 2026 (rebooking to a new date ≤ Oct 10 would preserve the possibility of a decision outcome for this market).
  • If the remaining event card runs as updated (Gall removed and Hernandez replaces him) and the Gall vs Dumas pairing does not occur on Sep 26 and is not rebooked by Oct 10, 2026, the market’s resolution criteria specify a 50-50 outcome.
  • If the bout (as originally billed between Gall and Dumas) is performed but ends in a No Contest, technical decision before all scheduled rounds, or is otherwise not scored at the end of scheduled rounds, the market resolves 'No' (or 50-50 for No Contest/canceled/postponed beyond Oct 10 per the stated rules).

Probability history

A9 never rewrites the past.

MarketA9Me
36%Initial read

As of Sep 24, 2026 the UFC officially announced that Micky Gall has been removed from the scheduled Sep 26, 2026 bout with Sedriques Dumas due to a medical issue and that Luis Hernandez will replace Gall; multiple reputable MMA outlets corroborate that update. Under the market's resolution rules, the specific Gall vs Dumas bout will not occur on Sep 26 unless the UFC reverses or amends that removal (or rebooks the same pairing on or before Oct 10, 2026). The single largest uncertainty is whether the UFC will change the announced status before the event or rebook the pairing ≤ Oct 10, 2026; absent such a reversal, the prescribed resolution path in the market rules (canceled/replaced = 50-50) would apply.

a9-predict-0.3.0 · 5f258ece0798acbae35248dbc5be6c9fc977b3b36ee9d24c5dbe0bb5e2a62a27