As of the available official communications and reporting (late Sep 24–25, 2026), Bitget experienced a ~ $387.5M hot/warm wallet exploit and suspended withdrawals. Bitget’s official support pages state a phased withdrawal resumption will begin Sept 28, 2026 08:00 UTC with full restoration expected by Oct 2, 2026 08:00 UTC; follow-up official updates (Sep 25) say the vulnerability was identified and remediation/validation is underway with external firms engaged and a recovery-bounty program in place. The primary uncertainty is whether the announced phased resumption will be executed on schedule — operational, forensic, third-party or legal complications (or discovery of additional stolen funds) could delay or limit resumption. Under the market’s resolution criteria, an actual platform-level resumption of withdrawals (even partial) before 2026-09-30 23:59 ET would resolve to 'Yes'. The strongest supporting evidence is Bitget’s own published phased schedule; the strongest opposing evidence is the large, multichain scope of the exploit and Bitget’s concurrent caveats that withdrawals remain suspended until safety is confirmed.
a9-predict-0.3.0 · 0f98f80ee5271ed182d884b8a1e1874a300e9b71422bd8b476f55b024825b62dTracked question
Will Bitget resume withdrawals by September 30, 2026?
A9 gives this a 91% chance of happening. That's somewhat less likely than the betting market thinks (95%) — a 4-point disagreement. A9 researched this on the web before forecasting.
Jev on its own said 61%
Why A9 thinks this
The evidence, separated.
As of the available official communications and reporting (late Sep 24–25, 2026), Bitget experienced a ~ $387.5M hot/warm wallet exploit and suspended withdrawals. Bitget’s official support pages state a phased withdrawal resumption will begin Sept 28, 2026 08:00 UTC with full restoration expected by Oct 2, 2026 08:00 UTC; follow-up official updates (Sep 25) say the vulnerability was identified and remediation/validation is underway with external firms engaged and a recovery-bounty program in place. The primary uncertainty is whether the announced phased resumption will be executed on schedule — operational, forensic, third-party or legal complications (or discovery of additional stolen funds) could delay or limit resumption. Under the market’s resolution criteria, an actual platform-level resumption of withdrawals (even partial) before 2026-09-30 23:59 ET would resolve to 'Yes'. The strongest supporting evidence is Bitget’s own published phased schedule; the strongest opposing evidence is the large, multichain scope of the exploit and Bitget’s concurrent caveats that withdrawals remain suspended until safety is confirmed.
For
Bitget's official 'Withdrawal Service Update' (posted Sep 24, 2026) states withdrawals will resume in phased stages beginning September 28, 2026 08:00 UTC and that full restoration is expected by October 2, 2026 08:00 UTC (this is an explicit operational schedule published by the primary resolution party).
Bitget's official 'Security Latest Incident Update' (posted Sep 25, 2026) says the underlying vulnerability has been identified and remediated, that technical teams are focusing on security validation needed to safely restore withdrawals, and that independent cybersecurity firms (Mandiant, SlowMist) are engaged — indicating active remediation and a concrete operational recovery effort.
Bitget has published live fund-tracing and a Recovery Bounty Program and reports coordination with industry partners has already frozen some affected assets, which increases the operational options available to restore some withdrawals before the deadline.
Multiple reputable crypto news outlets (The Block, CoinDesk, Yahoo Finance) reported the incident, its size (revised up to ~$387.5M) and quoted Bitget’s public statements about suspension and planned remediation, providing independent confirmation that Bitget made public commitments about a phased resumption timetable.
Bitget’s published attacker-address tracing and an active public tracker (trace.bgblockchain.xyz) mean third parties can monitor attacker funds and any freezing/recovery actions in near real time, reducing information asymmetry about whether conditions needed for safe restart have been met.
Against
Bitget initially suspended withdrawals as a precaution and multiple statements (including CEO comments reported by news outlets) emphasize withdrawals will remain suspended until security checks are complete; Bitget and its CEO reportedly declined to promise a specific reopening date, suggesting the timeline could slip.
The stolen amount is large (~$387.5M) and the incident spans multiple chains (Ethereum and several EVM networks, XRP Ledger, Zcash, TRON) — multichain incidents are operationally complex and can require extended forensic, legal and counterparty coordination before safe resumption of withdrawals.
Full restoration was explicitly forecast by Bitget for October 2, 2026 (08:00 UTC) on its support page; that schedule implies some or all withdrawals might remain unavailable through Sep 30 (the market deadline) if phased resumption is delayed or limited in scope.
Recovery and freezing depend in part on cooperation from external parties (other exchanges, stablecoin issuers, bridges, blockchain projects) and potentially law-enforcement/court processes — any delay or lack of cooperation could prevent withdrawals from resuming by the specified deadline.
Isolated user reports of successful withdrawals (if they appear) are explicitly not sufficient for market resolution; only official Bitget platform designation or credible consensus reporting will qualify, and official designations can lag behind operational changes.
Unknown
Whether Bitget's planned phased resumption (announced to start Sept 28, 2026 UTC) will actually be executed on schedule and result in withdrawals being available on Bitget's platform (even partially) by 2026-09-30 23:59 ET — i.e., whether technical/security validation, hot-wallet replenishment, and any required third‑party or legal approvals complete in time.
What would change A9's mind
- Bitget publishes an official platform notice or support/announcement page (not merely a plan) showing withdrawals are available (even partially) before the 2026-09-30 23:59 ET deadline — immediately flips to 'Yes'.
- Bitget announces a delay or withdraws the Sept 28 phased-resumption schedule (or announces additional affected funds or widened scope) — would flip toward 'No' (miss deadline).
- Major partner or payment/custody counterparties (stablecoin issuers, bridges, other exchanges) publicly refuse cooperation or report blocking relevant assets, or a court/regulator issues an order preventing withdrawals — flips toward 'No'.
- Significant, verifiable recovery or freezing of attacker-controlled funds credited/returned to Bitget’s exchange wallets (and announced publicly) enabling safe restart earlier than expected — flips toward 'Yes'.
- New unauthorized transfers or discovery of further compromised wallets expanding the loss materially beyond the announced $387.5M — flips toward 'No'.
Probability history